The price exceeded 220,000 yuan / ton, and the price of lithium carbonate reappeared
According to business news, on November 24, the prices of lithium carbonate in many companies such as Shanghai Chen Lithium New Material Technology Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Qingli Industrial Co., Ltd. increased, and the prices of industrial-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade lithium carbonate were Raised by varying degrees. Among them, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate of Yongzhou Haoli New Material Technology Co., Ltd. exceeded 220,000 yuan / ton, and the previous quotation was up to 200,000 yuan / ton.
The rise in the price of lithium carbonate is directly related to the great development of new energy vehicles in recent years, which has brought about the huge demand for power lithium-ion batteries.
In November last year, the State Council announced the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", which clearly mentioned that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles should reach 20 percent of the total sales of new vehicles, and by 2020 my country The penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales is only about 5 percent . Some institutions predict that by 2025, my country's new energy vehicle sales will reach about 4.96 million, about four times that of 2020.
The sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise, driving the output and installed capacity of upstream power lithium{{0}}ion batteries to increase significantly. Data show that from January to October, my country's power lithium-ion battery output accumulated to 159.8GWh, a year-on-year increase of 250.0 percent . In terms of vehicle loading, in the past 10 months, my country's power lithium-ion battery loading volume has accumulated to 107.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 168.1 percent .
The research report of CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that with the rapid increase in demand for lithium-ion batteries for new energy vehicles, it is estimated that the demand for lithium in 2021-2022 will be 610,000 tons and 800,000 tons, respectively, with a gap of 43,000 tons and 57,000 tons, respectively. The penetration rate of automobiles continues to exceed expectations, and the expansion rate of upstream lithium resources is difficult to meet the demand for downstream battery materials. The tight supply of battery raw materials such as lithium carbonate has left some companies "out of stock".
Yongxing Materials' current products are battery-grade lithium carbonate and quasi-battery-grade lithium carbonate. In its survey summary disclosed on November 24, it mentioned that the company has no lithium carbonate inventory. In order to cope with the possible mismatch between mining, dressing and smelting in the second phase of the project, there are currently more than 40,000 tons of mica concentrate in stock. According to the resource reserves owned by the company, if 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate is produced every year in the future, the reasonable service life of the production line can be guaranteed.
At the same time, the company's lithium carbonate price follows the market, and the recent sales price has increased significantly compared with July-August. Costs have also risen, but the raw materials are self-owned mines, which are generally still within a reasonable range.
It is understood that there are currently two extraction paths for lithium carbonate: lithium extraction from ore and lithium extraction from salt lakes. The important raw material for lithium extraction from ore is spodumene concentrate, which has a long history and relatively mature technology; lithium extraction from salt lake refers to the lithium-containing brine formed after the extraction of potassium salt from salt lake brine, and the deep magnesium removal, carbonization and impurity removal and complexation are carried out. Lithium carbonate, an important raw material for the new energy industry, is obtained after decalcification. Faced with the tight supply of lithium, companies have also started a "buy, buy, buy" model.
In terms of lithium mines, in July this year, Ganfeng Lithium revealed in its announcement that Ganfeng International, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, would launch a tender offer for the Canadian lithium company Millennium Lithium with its own funds, with a transaction amount not exceeding 353 million Canadian dollars. Yuan (about 1.783 billion yuan). Who would have thought that "a journey came out halfway", in September, Ningde Times proposed to acquire Millennium Lithium Industry for 376.8 million Canadian dollars (about 1.903 billion yuan), which is about 7 percent higher than the purchase price of Ganfeng Lithium Industry . In November, Millennium Lithium announced that the final acquirer was Canadian Lithium Corporation Americas Lithium, and the major shareholder of Americas Lithium was Ganfeng Lithium. At the same time, America Lithium will also pay CATL 20 million (about 128 million yuan) in liquidated damages.
On October 9, a notice disclosed by NeoLithium, a Canadian lithium salt company, showed that Zijin Mining had agreed to acquire all the issued shares of NeoLithium at C6.50 (approximately RMB 32.84) per share, for a total consideration of approximately C960 million (approximately 48.50 yuan). billion yuan). NeoLithium wholly owns the Argentine Tres Quebradas (3Q) lithium salt lake project with 7 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE).
On the evening of November 3, Shengxin Lithium Energy announced that Shengyi International, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company in Hong Kong, plans to purchase a 51 percent stake in MaxMind Hong Kong at a price of US76.5 million (about 489 million yuan). MaxMind Hong Kong, through its wholly-owned Zimbabwe Sun Company, owns mining licenses for a total of 40 rare metal nuggets located at the Sabi Star Lithium-Tantalum Mine Project in Zimbabwe.
In terms of salt lakes, the two salt lakes in Tibet, Alilongmucuo and Jiezechaka, invested and developed by Tibet Urban Investment, have a total reserves of 3.9 million tons of lithium carbonate (large reserves), 28 million tons of potassium chloride (medium reserves), boron (with three reserves). Diboron oxide) 3.3 million tons (medium-sized reserves), of which lithium carbonate reserves rank among the top in the world. On November 25, the company closed at the daily limit.
So, when will the rising tide of lithium carbonate end?
SMM's recent survey shows that from a fundamental point of view, lithium carbonate may form a supply gap of about 16 percent in the past two months. Although material factories have cleared inventory and traders have released goods, or the supply pressure may have eased, the fundamentals are firm, and the market outlook is expected. Lithium carbonate prices will continue to rise slightly.
Guotai Junan Securities also recently stated that the third lithium price increase has been brewed and started, and the price of lithium carbonate will be the first to lead the rise. Its non-ferrous team said in a conference call minutes that stockpiling in the fourth quarter to the end of the year will be the catalyst for the third rise in lithium prices. Before the Spring Festival or even the end of December, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate may reach 250,000 yuan / ton.
Guotai Junan Securities Nonferrous Metals team also believes that the level of tension in the lithium industry in 2022 will be higher than that in 2021. In 2022, the supply of lithium will increase by 33 percent -35 percent , but the general production schedule of downstream cathodes and batteries has doubled, and the increase in supply can be completely controlled by demand. Covering, under the solid pattern of shortage of fundamental supply and demand, we are optimistic that the spot price of lithium may continue to 2022 and 2023, and the medium and long-term outlook will not be capped.
According to the statistics of the Lithium Industry Branch of my country Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, starting from 2021, the global consumption of lithium products will increase significantly. Longzhong Information speculates that the supply of lithium resources is expected to be slightly insufficient in 2022-2023, and the lithium price center will rise significantly. It is expected that lithium prices will remain high in 2022-2023. In 2024-2026, domestic and foreign lithium mines and salt lake resources However, due to the expected rapid increase in demand, the supply side will not be significantly oversupplied, and lithium prices are expected to decline to a certain extent while maintaining a high center.
